— Zürich, 18. Februar 2024, FiPAX — 

Last month, the inflation development resembled a fluctuation between cold and hot. While inflation in Switzerland has remained steadily below 2% since June 2023, it stubbornly persists at a high level in the USA.

The current inflation data presents a mixed picture: In Switzerland, the inflation rate stood at 1.3% in January, which falls within the target range of the Swiss National Bank (SNB). This has raised expectations that the SNB could lower its policy rate as early as March. However, we currently see no immediate need for action for several reasons. Firstly, the current monetary policy is not restrictive, as real interest rates remain negative across the entire yield curve. Secondly, it is expected that inflation will increase slightly between April and June due to a second wave of rent increases resulting from adjustments to the reference interest rate. Thirdly, the currency situation has already significantly eased since the beginning of the year, with the US dollar gaining more than 5% against the Swiss franc and the euro appreciating by 2.2%. Additionally, neither the European Central Bank (ECB) nor the US Federal Reserve (Fed) are likely to lower their policy rates in the spring. Inflation in the USA remains persistently high, leaving the Fed with no room for imminent rate cuts.

The higher-than-expected inflation figures in the USA had implications for financial markets, with yields on 10-year government bonds briefly rising and the US dollar reacting accordingly. Against the Swiss franc, the greenback appreciated by 1.4%. This combination of rising interest rates and a stronger dollar pushed the price of gold below the $2,000 mark.

Despite the recessions in Japan and the UK, there is also positive news: Elevator manufacturer Schindler delivered solid annual figures, with a 1.3% increase in revenue to 11.5 billion Swiss francs and improved profit margins. To mark its 150th anniversary, Schindler is paying a special dividend of 1.00 Swiss francs per share, resulting in a total dividend of 5.00 Swiss francs. The stock responded positively to this news with a rise of over 4%.

Travel activity also shows encouraging signs, as passenger numbers at Zurich Airport increased by 13% in January to 1.96 million travelers, bringing them closer to pre-pandemic levels. Revenues in the airport’s shops and restaurants accordingly rose by 4.3% to 42.7 million Swiss francs.